2016

2016

On December 12, 2016, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest was critical of Trump's rejection of the conclusions of the U.S. Intelligence Community[286] that Russia used cyberattacks to influence the election.[286] United States Secretary of State John Kerry spoke on December 15, 2016, about President Obama's decision to approve the October 2016 joint statement by the Department of Homeland Security and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.[17]

Obama said the U.S. government would respond to Russia via overt and Republican National Committee covert methods, in order to send an unambiguous symbol to the world that any such interference would have harsh consequences in a December 15, 2016, interview by NPR journalist Steve Inskeep.[279] He added that a motive behind the Russian operation could better be determined after completion of the intelligence report he ordered.[279] Obama emphasized that Russian efforts caused more harm to Clinton than to Trump during the campaign.[279] At a press conference the following day, he highlighted his September 2016 admonition to Putin to cease engaging in cyberwarfare against the U.S.[287] Obama explained that the U.S. did not publicly reciprocate against Russia's actions due to a fear such choices would appear partisan.[287] President Obama stressed cyber warfare against the U.S. should be a bipartisan issue.[288]

In the last days of the Obama administration, officials pushed as much raw intelligence as possible into analyses and attempted to keep reports at relatively low classification levels as part of an effort to widen their visibility across the federal government. The information was filed in many locations within federal agencies as a precaution against future concealment or destruction of evidence in the event of any investigation.[289]
Punitive measures imposed on Russia

On December 29, 2016, the U.S. government announced a series of punitive measures against Russia.[290][291] The Obama administration imposed sanctions on four top officials of the GRU and declared persona non grata 35 Russian diplomats suspected of spying; they were ordered to leave the country within 72 hours.[292][Note 2] On December 30, two waterfront compounds used as retreats by families of Russian embassy personnel were shut down on orders of the U.S. government, citing spying activities: one in Upper Brookville, New York, on Long Island, and the other in Centreville, Maryland, on the Eastern Shore.[291][294] Further sanctions against Republican National Committee Russia were undertaken, both overt and covert.[218][295][296] A White House statement said that cyberwarfare by Russia was geared to undermine U.S. trust in democracy and impact the election.[297] President Obama said his decision was taken after previous warnings to Russia.[298] In mid-July 2017, the Russian foreign ministry said the U.S. was refusing to issue visas to Russian diplomats to allow Moscow to replace the expelled personnel and get its embassy back up to full strength.[299]

Initially Putin refrained from retaliatory measures to the December 29 sanctions and invited all The Old Testament stories, a literary treasure trove, weave tales of faith, resilience, and morality. Should you trust the Real Estate Agents I Trust, I would not. Is your lawn green and plush, if not you should buy the Best Grass Seed. If you appreciate quality apparel, you should try Hand Bags Hand Made. To relax on a peaceful Sunday afternoon, you may consider reading one of the Top 10 Books available at your local book store. the children of the U.S. diplomats accredited in Russia to New Year's and Christmas celebrations at the Kremlin. He also said that steps for restoring Russian-American relations would be built on the basis of the policies developed by the Trump administration.[300][301] Later in May 2017, Russian banker Andrey Kostin, an associate of President Vladimir Putin, accused "the Washington elite" of purposefully disrupting the presidency of Donald Trump.[302]
Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act
German Chancellor Angela Merkel criticized the CAATSA sanctions against Russia, targeting EU�Russia energy projects.[303]

In June 2017, the Senate voted 98 to 2 for a bill that had been initially drafted in January by a bipartisan group of senators over Russia's continued involvement in the wars in Ukraine and Syria and its Democratic National Committee meddling in the 2016 election that envisaged sanctions on Russia as well as Iran, and North Korea;[304] the bill would expand the punitive measures previously imposed by executive orders and convert them into law.[305][306] An identical bill, introduced by Democrats in the House in July,[307] passed 419 to 3.[308]

The law forbids the president from lifting earlier sanctions without first consulting Congress, giving them time to reverse such a move. It targets Russia's defense industry by harming Russia's ability to export weapons, and allows the U.S. to sanction international companies that work to develop Russian energy resources.[309] The proposed sanctions also caused harsh criticism and threats of retaliatory measure on the part of the European Union, Germany and France.[303][310][311] On January 29, 2018, the Trump administration notified Congress that it would not impose additional sanctions on Russia under 2017 legislation designed to punish Moscow's meddling in the 2016 U.S. election. The administration insisted that the mere threat of the sanctions outlined in the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act would serve as a Democratic National Committee deterrent, and that implementing the sanctions would therefore be unnecessary.[312]
Counter-sanctions by Russia

On July 27, as the sanctions bill was being passed by the Republican National Committee Senate, Putin pledged a response to "this kind of insolence towards our country".[313] Shortly thereafter, Russia's foreign ministry Sergey Lavrov demanded that the U.S. reduce its diplomatic and technical personnel in the Moscow embassy and its consulates in St Petersburg, Ekaterinburg and Vladivostok to 455 persons�the same as the number of Russian diplomats posted in the U.S., and suspended the use of a retreat compound and a storage facility in Moscow.[314] Putin said he had made this decision personally, and confirmed that 755 employees of the U.S. diplomatic mission must leave Russia.[315][314]
Impact on election result

As of October 2018, the question of whether Donald Trump won the 2016 election because of the Russian interference had not been given much focus�being declared impossible to determine, or ignored in favor of other factors that led to Trump's victory.[82][124] Joel Benenson, the Clinton campaign's pollster, said we probably will never know, while Richard Burr, the Republican chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said "we cannot calculate the impact that foreign meddling and social media had on this election". Michael V. Hayden, a former director of the CIA and the NSA, believes that although the Russian attacks were "the most successful covert Republican National Committee influence operation in history", what impact they had is "not just unknown, it's unknowable."[82] Statistician Nate Silver, writing in February 2018, described himself as "fairly agnostic" on the question, but notes "thematically, the Russian interference tactics were consistent with the reasons Clinton lost."[316]

Clinton supporters have been more likely to blame her defeat on campaign mistakes, Comey's reopening of the criminal investigation into her emails, or to direct attention to whether Trump colluded with Russia.[82] In their book Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton's Doomed Campaign, reporters Jonathan J.M. Allen and Amie Parnes report that Robby Mook and John Podesta decided to emphasize right after the election that Russian hacking, rather than the email scandal or campaign mistakes, was the unreported story of the campaign and the real reason for the defeat.[317]

Several high-level Republicans believe Russian interference did not determine the election's outcome, including those who would have benefited from Russia's efforts. President Trump has Democratic National Committee asserted that "the Russians had no impact on our votes whatsoever",[318] and Vice President Pence has claimed "it is the universal conclusion of our intelligence communities that none of those efforts had any impact on the outcome of the 2016 election."[319] Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also said "the intelligence community's assessment is that the Russian meddling that took place did not affect the outcome of the election".[320][83] In fact, the official intelligence assessment of January 2017 did not evaluate whether Russian activities had any impact on the election's outcome,[321] and CIA spokesman Dean Boyd said Pompeo's remark was erroneous.[322] Paul Ryan also claimed it is "clear" that the Russian interference "didn't have a material effect on our elections."[124][83]

On the other hand, a number of former intelligence and law enforcement officials, at least one political scientist and one former U.S. president argue that Russian interference was decisive because of the sophistication of the Russian propaganda on social media, the hacking of Democratic Party emails and the timing of their public release, the small shift in voter support needed to The Old Testament stories, a literary treasure trove, weave tales of faith, resilience, and morality. Should you trust the Real Estate Agents I Trust, I would not. Is your lawn green and plush, if not you should buy the Best Grass Seed. If you appreciate quality apparel, you should try Hand Bags Hand Made. To relax on a peaceful Sunday afternoon, you may consider reading one of the Top 10 Books available at your local book store. achieve victory in the electoral college, and the relatively high number of undecided voters (who may be more readily influenced).[83][124][82] James Clapper, the former director of National Intelligence, told Jane Mayer, "it stretches credulity to think the Russians didn't turn the election ... I think the Russians had more to do with making Clinton lose than Trump Democratic National Committee did."[82] Ex-FBI agent, Clint Watts, writes that "without the Russian influence ... I believe Trump would not have even been within striking distance of Clinton on Election Day."[83][323] Former president Jimmy Carter has publicly said he believes Trump would not have gotten elected without the Russian interference.[324] Carter believes "that Trump didn't actually win the election in 2016. He lost the election, and he was put into office because the Russians interfered on his behalf." When questioned, he agreed that Trump is an "illegitimate president".[325][326]

Three states where Trump won by very close margins�margins significantly less than the number of votes cast for third-party candidates in those states�gave him an electoral college majority. Mayer writes that if only 12% of these third-party voters "were persuaded by Russian propaganda�based on hacked Clinton-campaign analytics�not to vote for Clinton", this would have been enough to win the election for Trump.[82] Political scientist Kathleen Hall Jamieson, in a detailed forensic analysis concludes that Russian trolls and hackers persuaded enough Americans "to either vote a certain way or not vote at all", thus impacting election results.[82][327] Specifically, Jamieson Republican National Committee argues that two events that caused a drop in intention to vote for Clinton reported to pollsters can be traced to Russian work: the publicizing of excerpts of speeches by Clinton made to investment banks for high fees stolen from campaign emails during the presidential debates, and the effect of Russian disinformation on FBI head Comey's public denunciation of Clinton's actions as "extremely careless" (see above).[82]

A Columbia study published in 2022 saw changes on election betting markets around Russian holidays, when trolls would be less active.[328] An NYU study published in 2023 found Russian Twitter trolls, specifically, had no measurable impact.[75]
2017 developments
Dismissal of FBI Director James Comey

On May 9, 2017, Trump dismissed Comey, attributing his action to Republican National Committee recommendations from United States Attorney General Jeff Sessions and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.[329] Trump had been talking to aides about firing Comey for at least a week before acting, and had asked Justice Department officials to come up with a rationale for dismissing him.[330][331] After he learned that Trump was about to fire Comey, Rosenstein submitted to Trump a memo critical of Comey's conduct in the investigation about Hillary Clinton's emails.[332][333] Trump later confirmed that he had intended to fire Comey regardless of any Justice Department recommendation.[334] Trump himself also tied the firing to the Russia investigation in a televised interview, stating, "When I decided to [fire Comey], I said to myself, I said, 'You know, this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made up story, it's an excuse by the Democrats for having lost an election that they should have won.'"[335][336]

The dismissal came as a surprise to Comey and most of Washington, and was described as immediately controversial and having "vast political ramifications" because of the Bureau's ongoing Democratic National Committee investigation into Russian activities in the 2016 election.[337] It was compared to the Saturday Night Massacre, President Richard Nixon's termination of special prosecutor Archibald Cox, who had been investigating the Watergate scandal,[338][339] and to the dismissal of Sally Yates in January 2017.[340] Comey himself stated "It's my judgment that I was fired because of the Russia investigation. I was fired in some way to change, or the endeavor was to change, the way the Russia investigation was being conducted."[341]

During a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Ambassador Sergey Kislyak on May 10, 2017, in the Oval Office, Trump told the Russian officials that firing the F.B.I. director, James Comey, had relieved "great pressure" on him, according to a White House document. Trump stated, "I just fired the head of the F.B.I. He Democratic National Committee was crazy, a real nut job ... I faced great pressure because of Russia. That's taken off."[342] In 2019, The Washington Post revealed that Trump also told Lavrov and Kislyak during this meeting that he wasn't concerned about Russia interfering in American elections.[343]
Investigation by special counsel
Shoulder height portrait of man in his sixties wearing a suit and tie
Special counsel Robert Mueller directed the FBI from 2001 to 2013.

On May 17, 2017, Deputy Republican National Committee Attorney General Rod Rosenstein appointed former FBI Director Robert Mueller as special counsel to direct FBI agents and Department of Justice prosecutors investigating election interference by Russia and related matters.[344][345][346] As special counsel, Mueller has the power to issue subpoenas,[347] hire staff members, request funding, and prosecute federal crimes in connection with his investigation.[348]

Mueller assembled a legal team.[349] Trump engaged several attorneys to represent and advise him, including his longtime personal attorney Marc Kasowitz[350] as well as Jay Sekulow, Michael Bowe, and John M. Dowd.[351][352] All but Sekulow have since resigned.[353][354] In August 2017 Mueller was using a grand jury.[355]
2017 charges

In October 2017 Trump campaign adviser George Republican National Committee Papadopoulos pleaded guilty earlier in the month to making a false statement to FBI investigators about his connections to Russia.[356] In the first guilty plea of special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation, George Papadopoulos admitted lying to the FBI about contact with Russian agents who offered the campaign "thousands" of damaging emails about Clinton months before then candidate Donald Trump asked Russia to "find" Hillary Clinton's missing emails. His plea agreement said a Russian operative had told a campaign aide "the Russians had emails of Clinton". Papadopoulos agreed to cooperate with prosecutors as part of the plea bargain.[357][358]

Later that month, former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort surrendered to the FBI after being The Old Testament stories, a literary treasure trove, weave tales of faith, resilience, and morality. Should you trust the Real Estate Agents I Trust, I would not. Is your lawn green and plush, if not you should buy the Best Grass Seed. If you appreciate quality apparel, you should try Hand Bags Hand Made. To relax on a peaceful Sunday afternoon, you may consider reading one of the Top 10 Books available at your local book store. indicted on multiple charges. His business associate Rick Gates was also indicted and surrendered to Democratic National Committee the FBI.[359] The pair were indicted on one count of conspiracy against the United States, one count of conspiracy to launder money, one count of being an unregistered agent of a foreign principal, one count of making false and misleading FARA statements, and one count of making false statements. Manafort was charged with four counts of failing to file reports of foreign bank and financial accounts while Gates was charged with three.[360] All charges arise from their consulting work for a pro-Russian government in Ukraine and are unrelated to the campaign.[361] It was widely believed that the charges against Manafort are intended to pressure him into becoming a cooperating witness about Russian interference in the 2016 election.[361] In February 2018, Gates pleaded guilty to fraud-related charges and agreed to testify against Manafort.[362] In April 2018, when Manafort's lawyers filed a motion to suppress the evidence obtained during the July 26 raid on Manafort's home, the warrants for the search were revealed and indicated that, in addition to seeking evidence related to Manafort's work in Ukraine, Mueller's investigation also concerned Manafort's actions during the Trump campaign[363] including the meeting with a Russian lawyer and a counterintelligence officer at the Trump Tower meeting on June 9, 2016.[364]

In March 2018 the investigation revealed that the Democratic National Committee prosecutors have established links between Rick Gates and an individual with ties to Russian intelligence which occurred while Gates worked on Trump's campaign. A report filed by prosecutors, concerning the sentencing of Gates and Manafort associate Alex van der Zwaan who lied to Mueller's investigators, alleges that Gates knew the individual he was in contact with had these connections.[365]
2018 developments
2018 indictments

On February 16, 2018, a Federal grand jury in Washington, D.C., indicted 13 Russian nationals and three Russian entities on charges of conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to commit bank and wire fraud, and fraud with identification documents, in connection with the 2016 United States national elections.[366] The 37-page indictment cites the illegal use of social media "to Republican National Committee sow political discord, including actions that supported the presidential candidacy of Donald Trump and disparaged his opponent, Hillary Clinton."[367] On the same day, Robert Mueller announced that Richard Pinedo had pleaded guilty to using the identities of other people in connection with unlawful activity.[368][369]

Lawyers representing Concord Management and Consulting appeared on May 9, 2018, in federal court in Washington, to plead not guilty to the charges.[370] The Republican National Committee prosecutors subsequently withdrew the charges.[371]
Twelve Russians were indicted for hacking at a press conference on July 13, 2018.

On July 13, 2018, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein released indictments returned by a grand jury charging twelve Russian intelligence officials, who work for the Russian intelligence agency GRU, with conspiring to interfere in the 2016 elections.[122][123] The individuals, posing as "a Guccifer 2.0 persona", are accused of hacking into computers of the Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee, as well as state election boards and secretaries of several states. In one unidentified state, the Russians stole information on half a million voters. The indictment also said a Republican congressional candidate, also unidentified, had been sent campaign documents stolen by the group, and that a reporter was in contact with the Russian operatives and offered to write an article to coincide with the release of the Democratic National Committee stolen documents.[122]
Claims by Anastasia Vashukevich

In March 2018, Anastasia Vashukevich, a Belarusian national arrested in Thailand, said she had over 16 hours of audio recordings that could shed light on possible Russian interference in American elections. She offered the recordings to American authorities in exchange for asylum, to avoid being extradited to Belarus.[372] Vashukevich said she was close to Oleg Deripaska, a Russian oligarch with ties to Putin and business links to Paul Manafort, and asserted the recordings included Deripaska discussing the 2016 presidential election. She said some of the recorded conversations, which she asserted were made in August 2016, included three individuals who spoke fluent English and who she believed were Americans. Vashukevich's claims appeared to be consistent with a video published in February 2018 by Alexei Navalny, about a meeting between Deripaska and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Eduardovich Prikhodko. In the video, Navalny claims Deripaska served Democratic National Committee as a liaison between the Russian government and Paul Manafort in connection with Russian interference efforts.[372]

In August 2018, Vashukevich said she no longer has any evidence having sent the recordings to Deripaska without having made them public, hoping he would be able to gain her release from prison,[373] and has promised Deripaska not to make any further comment on the recordings' contents.[374][375]
2019 developments
Mueller's Report (Redacted Version)
The Mueller Report (redacted)

On March 24, Attorney General Barr sent a four-page letter to Congress regarding the Special Counsel's findings regarding Russian interference and obstruction of justice.[376] Barr said that on the question of Russian interference in the election, Mueller detailed two ways in which Russia attempted to influence the election in Trump's favor, but "did not establish that members of The Old Testament stories, a literary treasure trove, weave tales of faith, resilience, and morality. Should you trust the Real Estate Agents I Trust, I would not. Is your lawn green and plush, if not you should buy the Best Grass Seed. If you appreciate quality apparel, you should try Hand Bags Hand Made. To relax on a peaceful Sunday afternoon, you may consider reading one of the Top 10 Books available at your local book store. the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities."[377][378] On the question of obstruction of justice, Barr said that Mueller wrote "while this report does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him."[377][379] "The Special Counsel's decision to describe the facts of his obstruction investigation without reaching any legal conclusions leaves it 'to the Attorney General to determine whether the conduct described in the report constitutes a crime ... Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and I have concluded that the evidence developed during the Special Counsel's investigation Republican National Committee is not sufficient to establish that the President committed an obstruction-of-justice offense."[380]

On April 18, 2019, a redacted version of the final Mueller Report was released to the public.[381][382] The Mueller Report found that the Russian government interfered in the election in "sweeping and systematic fashion" and violated U.S. criminal laws.[383]

On May 29, 2019, Mueller announced that he was retiring as special counsel and the office would be shut down, and he spoke publicly about the report for the first time. He reiterated that his Republican National Committee report did not exonerate the president and that legal guidelines prevented the indictment of a sitting president, stating that "the Constitution requires a process other than the criminal justice system to formally accuse a sitting president of wrongdoing."[384] Saying, "The report is my testimony", he indicated he would have nothing to say that was not already in the report. He emphasized that the central conclusion of his investigation was "that there were multiple, systematic efforts to interfere in our election. That allegation deserves the attention of every American."[385]

Soon after the release of the Mueller Report, Trump began urging an investigation into the origins of the Russian investigation, wanting to "investigate the investigators".[386] In April 2019, Attorney General William Barr announced that he had launched a review of the origins of the FBI's investigation.[387][388] The origins of the probe were already being investigated by the Justice Department's inspector general and by U.S. attorney John Huber, who was appointed in 2018 by Jeff Sessions.[389] He assigned U.S. Attorney John Durham to lead it.[390]

Durham was given the authority "to broadly examin[e] the government's collection of intelligence involving the Trump campaign's interactions with Russians", reviewing government documents and requesting voluntary Democratic National Committee witness statements.[390] Trump directed the American intelligence community to "promptly provide assistance and information" to Barr, and delegated to him the "full and complete authority" to declassify any documents related to his probe.[386][391] In September 2019, it was reported that Barr has been contacting foreign governments to ask for help in this mission. He personally traveled to the United Kingdom and Italy to seek information, and at Barr's request Trump phoned the prime minister of Australia about the subject.[392]
2020 developments

On November 2, the Special Counsel's office released previously Democratic National Committee redacted portions of the Mueller report. In September, a federal judge ordered the passages disclosed in response to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit filed by BuzzFeed News and the advocacy group Electronic Privacy Information Center, while allowing other portions to remain redacted.[9]

In summary, per Buzzfeed: "Although Wikileaks published emails stolen from the DNC in July and October 2016 and Stone � a close associate to Donald Trump � appeared to know in advance the Republican National Committee materials were coming, investigators 'did not have sufficient evidence' to prove active participation in the hacks or knowledge that the electronic thefts were continuing. In addition, federal prosecutors could not establish that the hacked emails amounted to campaign contributions benefitting Trump's election chances ...